[Oa-italia] elsevier e journal pricing

[Elena Giglia]

Giro alla lista da liblicense
Buon agosto a chi c'e'
elena


Of possible interest to readers, the comments of analysts
at BNP
Paribas (one of Europe's largest banks).  Forwarded with
permission.

________________________________________
From: Sami Kassab [sami.kassab a exanebnpparibas.com]
Sent: Friday, August 07, 2009 3:49 AM
Subject: Reed Elsevier (-): Announces higher journal price
increases than expected

Hello, please find enclosed a comment on Reed Elsevier (-)
announcement regarding its 2010 science journal pricing
announcement:

*Reed Elsevier has announced its 2010 journal price increases
Elsevier has just published its 2010 print journal price
list. We
estimate the median price increases at 5% with key titles
such as
The Lancet up 9.5% and Cell Press up 4%. While these price
increases only pertain to print-only subscriptions (c 10% of
divisional revenues), we believe they suggest that
Elsevier has
maintained an aggressive pricing policy despite current
library
budget constraints. Its main competitor, Springer, also
announced
a 5% price increase for 2010.

* More aggressive pricing than expected

Given library budget pressure, we have assumed 2010 net price
increases of 3% in our model (0% for 2010 subscription
renewals
and 5% for existing contracts), resulting in -1% Elsevier's
organic revenue decline in 2010. As is the case elsewhere in
Media, listed prices increases can vary considerably from net
price increases due to significant discounts. We expect
pressure
on Elsevier's discounts and renewal rates to be under
pressure in
the coming months.  We maintain our 2010 organic revenue
growth
forecasts for Elsevier but they now look conservative.

* Open Access is putting pressure on pricing

We see Elsevier's decision to cuts prices for its nuclear
physics
journals by 20% as a reflection of the progress of Open
Access,
which prevails in this discipline. Should Open Access reach
critical mass in other disciplines, similar pricing
pressure is
likely. With the FRPAA act likely to pass in the US, Open
Access
will continue to grow.

* Cautious view maintained

We continue to believe the stock could remain 'dead money'
until
further clarification of the new investment budget and 2010
top-line trends. While we would close short positions, we
continue to prefer Pearson (+) and Wolters Kluwer (-) in
publishing.


Sami Kassab
--------------------------------------------------------
Exane BNP Paribas
Office: + 44 20 7039 9448
Mobile:+ 44 7795 528 365






--
dott.ssa Elena Giglia
Università degli Studi di Torino
Sistema Bibliotecario di Ateneo
Coordinatrice Ambito 6 «Scienze storiche e  filosofiche,
pedagogiche e psicologiche»
via Sant'Ottavio, 20
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